Jonathan Little Talks About When Its Right To Fold Good Draws

Jonathan Little is a 2-time World Poker Tour Champion with over $7,00,000 in live tournament earnings and today, we’ll be talking about his analysis of a hand he played in the 2019 World Series of Poker Main Event.

Little talks about how sometimes even if you have a good draw, it can be necessary to make a tight fold. He talks about a tough spot from the 2019 WSOP Main Event where he folded one such draw. The hand takes places in the 2,000/4,000/4,000 level while he was sitting with 88k (22BBs) with 10♠️9♠️ in the big blind. The player in the lojack raised to 8,000 and the player on the button called. Right off the bat, we had to face a decision after a raise and call – should we go all in or call? Little explains that he is more inclined to shove all-in if he realises that he has some sort of fold equity in this spot. However, the two players are both Tight-Aggressive, so the chances of them having stronger hands is more, making at least one of them to call a shove. Therefore, he decides to flat call and see a flop.

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The Flop: K♠️7♠️2♦️

There’s no point in leading out, Little checks from out-of-position and the original raiser continues for 9,000. The button called something which he says he didn’t like. If the button folds, it’s an easy check-raise spot for Little. But with the button calling, it’s almost always a spot where either of the two players can have a King and neither will be folding to a raise. Facing a bet and a call, it seemed likely that he was up against a King. The player on the button should only be continuing with a hand like a good draw or at least a 7. Given that they are both TAG players, it’s more likely  that they have a King in their range rather than a 7.

Facing a bet and a call, you can’t jam a flush draw. Little just calls and the turn is an A♣️.

Little checks, as well as the original raiser. Seeing two checks behind him, the button decides to raise 25,000. Would the button randomly be betting here with a weak hand? Jonathan thinks the answer is definitely not.

“With 71,000 in my stack, I don’t really have a lot of fold equity if I go all in as he’d only have to call 46K more. As such, I needed to either call or fold. It was basically a breakeven proposition for me to call – I have an 18% chance of making my flush and need to win 19-20% of the time to make it worthwhile – but what about implied odds?”

If he hits his flush and goes all-in, the button could very well fold. But if they call, they could easily have a strong hand such as A♠️Xx or Q♠️X♠️ for a better flush! There’s also a small chance that the lojack player (original raiser) could be trapping with a set. A small chance but still.

“It all added up to this was a hand that I think I had to have the immense discipline to fold, which I did. The lojack folded too and we never got to see what the button had, unfortunately.”

Jonathan Little has a YouTube channel where he regularly posts great videos for players of all levels! You can also check out the thorough analysis of this hand on his YouTube channel 

For more poker strategy blogs and ways to improve your poker, keep reading PokerShots!

Jonathan Little Talks About When Its Right To Fold Good Draws

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