Jonathan Little is a 2-time World Poker Tour Champion with over $7,00,000 in live tournament earnings and today, we’ll be talking about his analysis of a hand he played in the 2019 World Series of Poker Main Event.
Little talks about how sometimes even if you have a good draw, it can be necessary to make a tight fold. He talks about a tough spot from the 2019 WSOP Main Event where he folded one such draw. The hand takes places in the 2,000/4,000/4,000 level while he was sitting with 88k (22BBs) with 10♠️9♠️ in the big blind. The player in the lojack raised to 8,000 and the player on the button called. Right off the bat, we had to face a decision after a raise and call – should we go all in or call? Little explains that he is more inclined to shove all-in if he realises that he has some sort of fold equity in this spot. However, the two players are both Tight-Aggressive, so the chances of them having stronger hands is more, making at least one of them to call a shove. Therefore, he decides to flat call and see a flop.
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The Flop: K♠️7♠️2♦️
There’s no point in leading out, Little checks from out-of-position and the original raiser continues for 9,000. The button called something which he says he didn’t like. If the button folds, it’s an easy check-raise spot for Little. But with the button calling, it’s almost always a spot where either of the two players can have a King and neither will be folding to a raise. Facing a bet and a call, it seemed likely that he was up against a King. The player on the button should only be continuing with a hand like a good draw or at least a 7. Given that they are both TAG players, it’s more likely that they have a King in their range rather than a 7.
Facing a bet and a call, you can’t jam a flush draw. Little just calls and the turn is an A♣️.
Little checks, as well as the original raiser. Seeing two checks behind him, the button decides to raise 25,000. Would the button randomly be betting here with a weak hand? Jonathan thinks the answer is definitely not.
“With 71,000 in my stack, I don’t really have a lot of fold equity if I go all in as he’d only have to call 46K more. As such, I needed to either call or fold. It was basically a breakeven proposition for me to call – I have an 18% chance of making my flush and need to win 19-20% of the time to make it worthwhile – but what about implied odds?”
If he hits his flush and goes all-in, the button could very well fold. But if they call, they could easily have a strong hand such as A♠️Xx or Q♠️X♠️ for a better flush! There’s also a small chance that the lojack player (original raiser) could be trapping with a set. A small chance but still.
“It all added up to this was a hand that I think I had to have the immense discipline to fold, which I did. The lojack folded too and we never got to see what the button had, unfortunately.”
Jonathan Little has a YouTube channel where he regularly posts great videos for players of all levels! You can also check out the thorough analysis of this hand on his YouTube channel